* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/09/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 83 77 71 57 45 34 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 92 83 77 71 57 45 34 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 91 83 76 70 60 51 43 36 30 24 19 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 14 19 23 31 29 35 39 37 40 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 3 4 2 9 2 2 SHEAR DIR 288 289 261 254 256 250 256 244 245 248 250 254 257 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 138 137 136 134 132 132 132 133 133 133 133 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 64 63 65 67 63 61 59 61 62 60 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 16 17 17 17 16 16 15 15 13 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 49 46 33 29 25 15 8 15 17 14 17 13 8 200 MB DIV 52 60 58 55 70 88 73 70 48 30 17 -3 0 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 2 10 6 8 4 4 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1063 967 870 777 684 557 474 404 335 263 196 130 99 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.4 17.4 18.2 18.9 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 146.2 147.0 147.8 148.5 149.2 150.0 150.5 151.0 151.6 152.3 153.0 153.8 154.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 28 38 35 26 26 24 22 21 22 21 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -18. -23. -29. -33. -36. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -15. -18. -22. -25. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -12. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -23. -29. -43. -55. -66. -75. -82. -93.-102.-110. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/09/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/09/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##