* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 08/09/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 13 14 18 23 28 24 31 28 27 23 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -5 -4 -5 -6 -1 -5 -4 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 320 321 334 342 339 342 336 329 326 323 313 306 294 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 143 141 140 138 138 134 131 128 125 122 121 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 57 53 51 51 50 47 45 42 44 43 44 47 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -64 -59 -47 -42 -34 -35 -47 -36 -30 -23 -28 -25 200 MB DIV -9 -25 -34 -38 -24 -23 -15 -36 -33 -33 -13 -2 -15 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -2 0 1 4 3 4 4 2 6 7 LAND (KM) 1567 1609 1653 1707 1748 1826 1900 1960 2029 2118 2108 1948 1779 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.4 125.1 125.9 126.7 128.3 129.8 131.0 132.1 133.3 134.7 136.2 137.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 21 14 10 9 12 10 5 6 6 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -18. -20. -23. -23. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 08/09/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 08/09/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##