* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/09/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 89 83 77 73 60 48 37 29 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 89 83 77 73 60 48 37 29 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 87 80 74 68 57 48 41 35 29 24 19 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 14 18 22 25 29 31 33 33 38 35 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 0 -2 4 2 3 2 5 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 238 242 250 256 260 257 254 242 244 249 263 255 253 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 137 136 134 134 132 131 132 133 134 135 135 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 64 66 66 65 64 63 63 62 63 63 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 18 16 18 16 15 14 15 13 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 41 35 37 27 24 14 12 20 10 9 2 6 9 200 MB DIV 63 61 54 68 67 76 57 40 42 24 12 27 24 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 0 2 7 6 2 3 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 979 875 771 696 622 514 428 370 319 253 147 47 -9 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.7 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 147.0 147.9 148.7 149.2 149.7 150.4 151.0 151.4 151.8 152.4 153.4 154.4 155.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 28 37 35 27 26 29 29 29 29 23 18 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -20. -25. -29. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -21. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -22. -35. -47. -58. -66. -75. -86. -95.-101. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/09/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/09/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##