* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/10/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 74 69 63 49 42 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 80 74 69 63 49 42 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 79 73 67 61 50 42 35 30 25 21 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 22 22 29 28 27 30 31 33 34 33 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 1 2 3 3 3 0 3 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 256 259 261 254 262 268 248 249 245 255 271 253 251 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 134 133 133 133 132 132 134 137 139 141 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 64 61 62 60 63 64 63 61 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 17 17 17 14 16 13 13 11 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 26 13 12 17 15 2 13 21 14 5 2 7 10 200 MB DIV 53 54 64 84 58 54 36 35 33 39 27 16 34 700-850 TADV -5 0 5 9 9 5 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 784 691 598 545 493 419 318 271 237 151 10 59 216 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.7 18.4 18.6 18.7 18.9 19.3 19.4 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 148.7 149.4 150.1 150.5 150.8 151.3 152.0 152.4 152.7 153.5 155.0 156.5 158.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 5 4 4 3 2 3 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 36 33 24 24 26 29 33 32 29 24 8 32 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -16. -18. -19. -21. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -4. -9. -9. -12. -17. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -22. -36. -43. -56. -63. -71. -82. -88. -93. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/10/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/10/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##