* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/10/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 68 63 56 44 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 74 68 63 56 44 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 75 69 63 58 47 39 32 27 23 20 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 25 29 32 34 35 36 35 35 39 43 39 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 0 3 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 257 264 268 268 268 263 252 245 242 245 254 249 252 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 140 140 139 137 136 135 135 136 137 139 141 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 64 63 62 65 67 69 68 69 68 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 10 8 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 8 5 6 2 -8 -6 0 7 -2 -2 -2 7 13 200 MB DIV 50 49 53 61 50 55 53 61 48 55 37 36 7 700-850 TADV -1 5 7 5 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 682 608 535 481 427 338 299 223 147 38 -23 105 132 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.4 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.9 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 149.5 150.0 150.6 151.0 151.4 152.0 152.2 152.8 153.5 154.5 155.6 157.1 158.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 32 27 27 29 29 31 32 29 26 19 6 25 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -13. -19. -23. -26. -28. -30. -33. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -24. -36. -46. -57. -65. -72. -78. -84. -87. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/10/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/10/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##