* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/10/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 68 62 58 46 36 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 74 68 62 58 46 36 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 76 71 66 60 50 42 34 28 23 21 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 24 21 24 26 31 35 37 37 36 35 35 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 5 5 2 2 0 4 0 0 4 3 3 SHEAR DIR 272 271 268 270 267 250 252 249 253 256 260 253 262 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 139 138 138 136 135 136 136 138 140 141 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 62 64 63 60 61 62 63 64 64 64 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 14 15 13 13 11 9 10 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 11 9 11 2 -5 7 13 11 -11 1 9 22 29 200 MB DIV 38 52 72 60 45 47 41 48 28 22 45 0 15 700-850 TADV 5 7 5 3 2 0 1 0 2 0 -2 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 626 563 501 454 408 300 191 115 78 19 36 146 186 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.9 18.4 18.7 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 150.0 150.5 151.0 151.4 151.7 152.5 153.4 154.1 154.6 155.3 156.3 157.5 159.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 5 4 3 3 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 25 26 27 27 27 28 24 21 5 22 27 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -8. -10. -15. -19. -22. -25. -27. -29. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -10. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -22. -34. -44. -55. -63. -67. -74. -81. -85. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/10/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/10/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##