* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/11/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 72 67 62 52 42 32 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 77 72 67 62 52 42 32 22 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 78 73 68 63 53 44 36 29 26 22 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 23 24 26 26 30 27 31 33 34 39 40 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 2 0 0 2 3 4 0 2 -1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 272 270 269 259 253 253 249 242 254 255 262 261 258 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 138 137 136 137 137 137 139 140 141 142 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 66 65 63 64 64 66 66 68 66 63 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 12 12 12 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 13 0 -7 -6 3 11 -4 1 11 14 25 26 200 MB DIV 48 70 65 53 58 42 64 55 26 45 31 -4 13 700-850 TADV 7 8 6 3 3 1 3 3 1 1 0 -5 0 LAND (KM) 574 523 472 430 388 287 199 100 24 51 177 193 215 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.1 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 150.3 150.7 151.1 151.4 151.7 152.5 153.3 154.2 155.2 156.4 157.8 159.3 160.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 29 29 29 29 28 22 5 30 25 22 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -17. -20. -22. -24. -27. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -5. -8. -9. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -13. -18. -28. -38. -48. -58. -63. -70. -74. -77. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/11/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/11/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##