* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/11/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 64 59 53 42 32 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 70 64 59 53 42 32 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 71 67 61 56 45 36 27 27 24 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 33 35 38 36 36 32 36 36 38 38 35 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 -1 -2 0 0 3 0 5 0 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 269 263 258 257 257 251 245 248 247 248 256 252 258 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 136 136 136 137 137 138 141 142 141 142 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 65 64 64 68 67 65 61 61 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -19 -13 -2 -5 2 -4 -10 9 14 34 30 32 200 MB DIV 70 64 71 60 44 52 53 30 35 34 32 27 9 700-850 TADV 6 8 6 2 1 3 3 1 -1 0 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 460 414 368 322 276 175 61 -15 76 200 220 241 272 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.9 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 151.1 151.5 151.8 152.2 152.5 153.3 154.4 155.6 156.7 158.0 159.3 160.6 161.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 27 26 26 24 20 6 33 28 27 41 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. -33. -35. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -22. -33. -43. -53. -57. -62. -66. -69. -71. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/11/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/11/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##