* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 08/11/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 25 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 25 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 26 24 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 18 24 24 26 27 28 35 31 31 29 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -4 -3 -1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 323 315 305 302 306 295 301 305 300 299 292 284 278 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.3 26.2 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 140 139 135 130 126 125 127 127 125 125 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 45 44 45 44 45 44 45 48 50 53 56 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -17 -10 -4 -7 -7 0 2 -7 -11 -22 -23 -18 200 MB DIV -30 -32 -32 -19 -17 -43 -22 -4 -11 -25 -24 9 -10 700-850 TADV 1 4 3 2 3 4 5 7 7 8 7 3 0 LAND (KM) 2014 2057 2102 2155 2210 2126 1952 1769 1575 1394 1214 1057 913 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 130.4 131.1 131.8 132.6 133.3 134.7 136.3 138.0 139.8 141.5 143.2 144.7 146.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 19 14 12 10 6 4 6 1 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -20. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -20. -22. -21. -19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 08/11/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 08/11/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##