* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/11/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 56 48 39 33 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 56 48 39 33 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 59 53 47 43 34 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 32 32 30 31 33 40 37 32 35 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 0 4 4 3 -1 0 6 6 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 261 257 251 254 245 254 250 248 250 256 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 137 137 136 137 138 139 140 142 143 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 69 69 66 66 68 65 65 59 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 11 11 11 8 7 7 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -6 6 0 -2 9 -9 -8 19 12 28 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 82 75 55 42 55 15 21 55 25 17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 5 3 2 1 0 1 0 -1 -5 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 430 376 322 283 245 145 47 62 169 263 330 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.5 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.6 152.0 152.4 152.7 153.0 153.9 155.2 156.4 157.5 158.8 160.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 24 23 23 23 22 21 34 36 30 38 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -25. -28. -30. -32. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -7. -9. -11. -11. -9. -8. -5. -2. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -26. -32. -40. -50. -57. -59. -62. -64. -66. -69. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/11/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/11/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##