* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 08/11/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 27 24 22 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 27 24 22 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 28 26 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 24 25 22 25 25 20 31 29 27 30 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 0 -4 0 0 -1 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 313 308 304 310 309 297 305 284 284 284 285 273 278 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 140 138 133 128 126 126 128 127 125 126 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 47 47 46 50 53 54 58 58 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -8 0 -4 -5 -3 2 -2 -17 -13 -24 -20 -19 200 MB DIV -28 -33 -25 -21 -44 -26 11 -2 -21 -32 14 -20 -6 700-850 TADV 6 5 3 4 4 6 6 2 5 8 9 2 0 LAND (KM) 2055 2106 2159 2207 2215 2040 1868 1684 1491 1299 1120 953 810 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 130.9 131.7 132.4 133.2 133.9 135.5 137.1 138.8 140.6 142.4 144.1 145.7 147.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 16 13 11 9 4 6 3 1 0 1 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -15. -17. -18. -17. -17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 08/11/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 08/11/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##