* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/12/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 41 36 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 48 41 36 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 47 42 37 33 27 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 28 23 25 23 30 32 36 34 33 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 1 3 1 2 -2 0 0 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 256 258 258 249 250 248 251 248 252 249 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 137 137 138 139 140 142 144 145 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 68 69 67 68 69 67 66 63 64 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 10 11 9 8 7 5 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -2 -6 -10 -6 -6 -21 1 6 23 22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 83 78 61 45 45 47 28 47 21 5 29 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 1 2 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 405 363 322 283 246 160 88 118 205 351 425 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.0 152.4 152.8 153.2 153.6 154.5 155.6 156.5 157.6 159.1 161.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 19 18 18 20 20 23 31 35 33 37 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -19. -22. -32. -41. -48. -53. -58. -60. -61. -61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/12/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/12/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##