* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 08/12/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 26 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 26 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 26 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 28 29 28 29 31 28 36 34 35 35 36 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -4 -2 1 -4 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 303 307 308 306 305 295 283 294 293 289 289 285 282 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 137 135 132 127 125 124 125 125 124 124 125 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 41 41 43 42 42 45 48 50 54 55 54 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -10 -8 -9 -9 -9 -7 -17 -25 -35 -22 -28 -24 200 MB DIV -26 -21 -27 -42 -31 -8 12 -22 -1 -14 -2 -15 0 700-850 TADV 5 5 5 5 5 9 9 9 10 6 0 -3 -10 LAND (KM) 2075 2126 2179 2194 2117 1966 1805 1624 1444 1277 1131 998 876 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 131.8 132.6 133.3 134.0 134.7 136.1 137.6 139.3 141.0 142.6 144.0 145.3 146.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 7 5 3 6 1 0 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -12. -19. -24. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -23. -28. -34. -35. -36. -34. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 08/12/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 08/12/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##