* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 08/12/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 26 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 31 27 26 27 32 32 33 38 41 39 37 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 307 305 303 300 289 290 289 287 279 289 290 289 290 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 134 131 129 125 124 125 126 127 125 127 129 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 41 42 42 43 42 45 48 49 52 53 51 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 4 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -10 -7 -5 -5 -1 -4 -20 -30 -30 -41 -21 -17 200 MB DIV -22 -26 -38 -27 -23 -16 -16 -25 -23 -2 -14 -36 -28 700-850 TADV 5 6 5 5 5 8 7 12 5 0 -3 -8 -13 LAND (KM) 2139 2184 2183 2107 2032 1881 1710 1540 1361 1193 1036 890 754 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.8 19.9 19.8 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 132.7 133.4 134.1 134.8 135.5 136.9 138.5 140.1 141.8 143.4 144.9 146.3 147.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 5 3 3 9 7 4 2 2 0 0 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -13. -20. -26. -30. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -21. -28. -34. -38. -39. -39. -37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 08/12/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 08/12/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##