* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 08/12/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 24 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 24 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 29 29 31 32 34 33 38 40 39 42 41 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 2 0 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -7 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 308 308 295 287 290 288 289 281 286 286 287 281 275 SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 129 126 125 125 125 127 126 125 126 127 129 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 42 43 42 44 44 48 50 54 55 54 53 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -3 -1 -1 1 -1 -9 -18 -25 -32 -23 -16 -9 200 MB DIV -35 -20 -26 -27 -15 -8 -13 -1 -6 0 -49 -26 -15 700-850 TADV 5 5 6 7 7 6 13 7 5 -1 -10 -15 -9 LAND (KM) 2151 2075 1999 1919 1839 1668 1487 1308 1141 985 860 745 640 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.7 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.2 20.1 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 134.4 135.1 135.8 136.6 137.3 138.9 140.6 142.3 143.9 145.4 146.6 147.7 148.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 7 11 6 5 2 1 0 0 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -15. -23. -29. -33. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -8. -13. -20. -26. -32. -37. -40. -42. -41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 08/12/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 08/12/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##