* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 08/13/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 33 34 33 31 38 40 47 46 43 40 38 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 -1 -1 -4 -5 -6 -3 -5 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 308 298 295 295 290 286 283 287 285 286 288 289 290 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 125 123 124 124 125 124 123 124 125 128 131 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 43 42 43 44 46 50 53 57 56 53 49 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -7 -8 -10 -10 -19 -27 -36 -37 -45 -30 -18 -6 200 MB DIV -23 -25 -25 -13 -10 -13 -1 -16 4 -33 -48 -36 -13 700-850 TADV 7 8 9 8 5 12 11 10 1 -8 -13 -19 -17 LAND (KM) 2061 1985 1910 1830 1750 1570 1392 1226 1064 922 797 670 552 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.0 20.9 20.7 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 135.2 135.9 136.6 137.3 138.1 139.8 141.5 143.1 144.7 146.1 147.3 148.5 149.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 7 9 7 3 3 3 0 0 1 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -18. -28. -36. -40. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -16. -23. -31. -38. -43. -45. -45. -43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 08/13/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 08/13/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##