* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/13/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 37 34 31 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 30 33 33 35 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 236 241 240 243 257 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 139 140 141 143 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 58 58 59 59 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 7 -2 -6 -1 10 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 35 31 37 20 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 -1 -6 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 359 309 265 222 204 297 461 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.3 17.1 16.7 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.4 153.0 153.6 154.4 155.2 157.2 159.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 21 21 22 22 30 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -17. -21. -24. -26. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -22. -27. -33. -37. -38. -40. -41. -42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/13/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/13/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##