* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 08/13/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 31 36 47 59 68 73 74 73 68 63 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 31 36 47 59 68 73 74 73 68 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 32 41 51 61 67 69 66 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 8 4 3 2 2 2 1 6 16 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -4 -3 -1 0 1 3 1 -2 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 44 53 61 84 100 66 110 15 3 129 140 158 176 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.2 28.8 28.4 27.6 26.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 160 161 163 162 157 153 149 141 134 124 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 79 80 82 83 81 80 78 74 66 65 62 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 9 11 12 12 12 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -2 1 0 9 17 30 41 51 52 46 38 36 13 200 MB DIV 106 88 61 78 97 105 87 67 50 24 4 23 5 700-850 TADV 2 1 -1 0 0 -3 0 -1 -1 -1 1 3 4 LAND (KM) 746 747 763 784 809 869 965 962 993 1037 1114 1213 1302 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.7 14.4 15.3 16.3 17.4 18.5 19.7 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.9 106.8 107.8 108.7 110.6 112.4 114.4 116.4 118.4 120.7 123.0 125.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 79 73 64 56 43 26 34 35 47 19 9 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -11. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 16. 27. 39. 48. 53. 54. 53. 48. 43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 08/13/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 08/13/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##