* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 08/14/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 29 35 41 53 67 75 80 79 77 72 67 V (KT) LAND 20 24 29 35 41 53 67 75 80 79 77 72 67 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 23 26 29 37 48 62 72 77 78 75 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 4 4 3 4 6 5 4 9 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -3 -3 0 -1 0 1 -2 -3 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 52 64 88 104 68 69 53 3 21 35 124 165 172 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.3 27.4 26.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 160 161 161 161 157 153 148 139 133 124 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 80 82 83 81 81 81 79 72 67 66 62 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 4 3 11 20 20 31 45 44 38 26 29 7 -7 200 MB DIV 84 60 81 96 99 96 89 58 48 12 11 6 -3 700-850 TADV 1 -1 0 0 -2 -1 0 -3 -1 -2 1 0 4 LAND (KM) 765 780 802 827 855 923 988 973 999 1034 1077 1155 1200 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.8 14.5 15.4 16.4 17.5 18.8 19.9 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.2 108.1 109.0 109.8 111.4 113.1 114.8 116.6 118.5 120.5 122.4 124.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 9 8 9 10 9 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 68 60 53 42 30 29 38 38 43 17 7 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 6. 5. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 33. 47. 55. 60. 59. 57. 52. 47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 08/14/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 08/14/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##