* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 08/14/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 28 32 37 48 56 60 60 60 55 52 48 V (KT) LAND 20 23 28 32 37 48 56 60 60 60 55 52 48 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 23 25 28 35 42 47 49 49 48 47 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 5 4 5 3 3 2 8 13 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -4 -3 1 2 3 2 0 -5 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 55 58 81 92 105 161 171 237 234 134 151 182 188 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.1 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.8 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 163 163 156 148 148 145 139 134 131 125 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 82 83 83 81 80 76 71 65 64 60 56 51 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 9 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 3 14 21 21 23 39 41 38 37 30 17 -10 -21 200 MB DIV 80 84 108 104 90 81 67 33 29 9 11 -5 -21 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -3 1 0 0 -1 0 1 1 3 LAND (KM) 771 776 772 781 808 831 821 889 953 1028 1101 1159 1214 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 60 49 34 25 24 47 28 18 13 7 11 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 17. 28. 36. 40. 40. 40. 35. 32. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 08/14/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 56% is 4.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 08/14/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##