* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/14/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 21 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 34 34 36 38 32 28 25 28 24 22 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 0 0 5 8 7 0 -3 -4 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 257 257 254 255 260 266 281 260 269 263 258 248 241 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 143 143 143 145 146 147 147 148 147 147 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 59 60 63 62 59 60 59 57 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 10 6 10 21 22 21 8 11 6 9 18 20 200 MB DIV 0 17 28 8 20 55 17 1 -8 -3 2 26 16 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -2 -1 0 2 3 6 2 -1 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 438 472 509 544 588 642 653 693 788 891 1001 1076 1137 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.5 17.3 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 157.7 158.4 159.0 159.7 160.4 161.9 163.3 164.5 165.8 167.0 168.1 168.8 169.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 42 43 44 45 44 41 43 56 58 52 57 59 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 782 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -10. -14. -19. -22. -22. -21. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -17. -19. -20. -19. -18. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/14/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/14/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##