* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 08/14/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 34 43 47 49 48 43 34 28 21 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 34 43 47 49 48 43 34 28 21 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 27 31 34 36 35 32 28 23 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 6 3 5 7 8 13 26 36 38 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -3 -1 1 4 3 3 4 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 86 116 113 137 159 168 214 209 184 183 184 182 181 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.5 28.6 28.4 27.5 26.2 25.3 23.8 23.4 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 162 160 151 149 140 127 118 102 98 97 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 84 82 80 80 74 66 62 57 57 58 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 12 10 9 8 7 5 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 22 24 26 30 30 44 43 58 28 18 -6 -26 -39 200 MB DIV 103 104 108 94 85 81 35 23 6 15 4 13 8 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 2 2 2 -4 6 5 13 14 LAND (KM) 721 741 776 828 856 841 874 891 970 1031 1179 1226 1244 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.5 17.7 19.2 20.8 22.6 24.4 26.2 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.5 110.4 111.4 112.3 114.3 116.3 118.5 120.8 123.5 126.2 128.6 130.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 34 25 24 26 38 30 17 8 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 33. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. 0. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -7. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -5. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 23. 27. 29. 28. 23. 14. 8. 1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 08/14/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 08/14/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##