* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 08/14/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 33 40 45 48 48 44 39 34 30 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 33 40 45 48 48 44 39 34 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 31 32 32 30 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 7 9 5 2 2 4 5 7 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 2 1 0 -2 -3 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 112 113 127 131 126 140 175 46 73 105 146 164 162 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.6 29.1 28.6 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.2 25.4 25.0 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 161 156 150 145 144 139 134 125 117 110 106 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 85 83 81 80 77 70 64 60 58 54 49 45 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 12 12 10 9 7 5 3 1 850 MB ENV VOR 20 21 30 33 38 41 48 22 6 -8 -27 -38 -46 200 MB DIV 98 101 90 92 81 82 49 26 0 -5 -10 -10 -7 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 1 0 -2 -5 -1 -6 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 642 680 737 750 742 768 837 816 792 809 883 896 875 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 11 10 9 9 8 5 5 9 9 4 1 HEAT CONTENT 27 25 28 40 39 22 13 7 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 20. 25. 28. 28. 24. 19. 14. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 08/14/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 08/14/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##