* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 08/15/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 30 33 37 43 44 44 37 29 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 33 37 43 44 44 37 29 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 34 33 29 24 20 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 6 7 4 0 7 10 13 14 18 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -4 -5 3 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 85 61 81 113 110 36 101 123 146 150 156 149 162 SST (C) 29.8 29.5 29.0 28.6 28.3 27.8 26.7 25.4 24.8 24.0 23.4 23.2 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 155 150 147 143 132 118 111 103 96 92 89 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 84 82 79 75 69 64 60 56 52 50 44 42 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 14 14 13 13 9 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 38 44 43 43 48 38 22 1 -25 -32 -51 -46 200 MB DIV 112 99 90 102 90 63 39 14 14 5 8 6 6 700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 0 -1 -2 -6 0 -1 -2 1 -2 1 LAND (KM) 757 812 803 780 770 769 754 816 859 928 1034 1062 1060 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 10 12 13 11 11 10 8 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 23 30 45 35 23 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 19. 22. 24. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. -4. -9. -12. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 8. 12. 18. 19. 19. 12. 4. -6. -13. -19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 08/15/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 08/15/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##