* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 08/15/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 45 44 37 27 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 45 44 37 27 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 33 34 33 29 23 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 6 4 4 8 6 16 20 28 29 33 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 -1 1 -1 1 0 -2 0 -1 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 104 98 98 84 76 126 117 144 151 150 147 152 166 SST (C) 29.6 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.2 27.7 26.3 25.3 24.2 23.3 23.4 23.4 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 156 152 148 147 142 128 118 107 97 98 97 96 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.0 -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 83 80 75 70 68 63 58 56 56 54 51 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 16 16 16 15 14 11 8 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 41 48 47 50 53 60 50 44 21 18 21 45 43 200 MB DIV 130 115 107 83 63 74 13 13 18 23 14 24 2 700-850 TADV -1 -1 1 0 -5 0 -5 -2 -3 1 1 2 5 LAND (KM) 813 808 795 796 814 831 884 933 1052 1192 1222 1315 1366 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.6 19.0 20.7 22.4 24.1 25.8 27.4 28.9 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.5 113.4 114.4 115.4 117.4 119.7 122.1 124.7 127.4 130.0 132.5 134.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 13 14 14 15 14 14 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 28 44 38 25 25 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 23. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 1. -3. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. -1. -5. -9. -14. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 20. 19. 12. 2. -10. -17. -22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 08/15/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 08/15/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##