* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962015 08/16/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 30 39 48 54 59 61 65 68 70 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 30 39 48 54 59 61 65 68 70 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 43 50 55 57 61 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 6 4 3 6 3 2 10 9 7 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 5 8 3 7 7 3 2 3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 102 109 83 66 34 26 350 212 221 253 277 279 231 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.6 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 136 138 138 133 128 128 130 131 129 130 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 137 140 140 134 128 128 129 129 127 127 126 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 62 64 64 64 65 63 61 58 56 57 57 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR 45 57 59 63 56 39 37 29 30 43 37 20 20 200 MB DIV 4 6 6 31 58 57 74 53 87 52 35 -23 -38 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -6 -5 -4 -8 -2 -2 -4 -11 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 871 988 1107 1235 1353 1612 1883 1752 1535 1344 1190 1057 976 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.7 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 24.5 25.6 26.8 28.0 29.3 31.9 34.6 37.4 40.0 42.5 44.8 46.9 48.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 16 15 14 15 12 15 19 10 9 14 23 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):262/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 5. 2. 1. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 19. 28. 34. 39. 41. 45. 48. 50. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST 08/16/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST 08/16/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)