* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 08/16/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 40 38 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 40 38 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 37 39 39 36 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 3 6 9 10 4 10 15 24 18 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 0 -2 2 4 0 3 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 100 66 90 120 124 140 132 128 144 133 139 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.3 25.7 24.5 23.7 23.3 23.1 23.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 146 145 138 122 109 99 94 91 90 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -50.7 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 71 66 63 61 57 54 50 43 40 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 17 17 14 13 10 7 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 45 54 69 65 51 32 0 -15 -34 -35 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 126 74 54 43 35 31 25 14 11 5 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -6 0 1 -1 -1 -2 0 -8 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 783 764 775 787 786 843 884 972 1031 1059 1045 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.2 18.0 18.9 19.7 21.5 23.6 25.1 26.0 26.7 27.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.9 114.1 115.3 116.5 117.6 119.8 122.5 124.3 125.5 126.5 127.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 14 14 13 15 14 9 6 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 22 18 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 0. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -11. -14. -17. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 10. 8. -1. -12. -22. -31. -33. -36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 08/16/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 08/16/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##