* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962015 08/16/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 41 51 59 66 72 80 88 91 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 41 51 59 66 72 80 88 91 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 31 38 47 57 66 76 89 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 5 6 7 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 4 7 5 1 5 3 1 2 0 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 106 81 61 41 27 44 61 172 204 35 66 89 188 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 138 138 135 132 132 134 136 136 138 137 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 140 140 137 134 134 136 138 137 137 135 136 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 65 66 64 65 62 65 66 63 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 6 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 56 59 62 55 45 40 34 26 35 30 28 11 21 200 MB DIV 4 6 31 57 68 63 68 85 101 53 -1 -29 -40 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -6 -5 -5 -6 -4 -1 -3 -9 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 995 1120 1247 1377 1508 1782 1797 1545 1300 1096 934 823 759 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.1 11.3 LONG(DEG W) 25.7 26.9 28.1 29.4 30.7 33.4 36.3 39.0 41.7 44.2 46.4 48.3 49.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 14 14 13 13 12 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 15 15 14 19 13 12 23 22 33 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 9. 10. 12. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 31. 39. 46. 52. 60. 68. 71. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST 08/16/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST 08/16/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)