* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112015 08/16/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 38 38 40 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 38 38 40 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 36 37 36 32 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 7 9 7 10 18 27 32 26 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 1 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 49 99 127 125 138 151 143 143 150 141 163 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.2 26.3 25.0 24.0 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 138 128 115 104 96 95 94 93 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -51.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 66 63 61 57 55 53 51 46 45 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 16 14 14 12 9 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 55 68 66 62 35 18 10 3 -3 15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 55 41 43 40 31 30 20 3 3 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -1 0 -1 4 3 6 4 -1 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 758 775 800 804 841 872 1001 1152 1181 1206 1233 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.0 18.8 19.8 20.7 22.7 24.4 25.7 26.8 27.9 28.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.0 115.3 116.6 117.9 119.2 121.6 124.3 126.7 128.7 130.3 131.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 15 15 15 15 14 12 10 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 18 8 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. -1. -7. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 8. 10. 5. -4. -15. -24. -30. -33. -36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112015 ELEVEN 08/16/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112015 ELEVEN 08/16/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##