* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962015 08/16/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 48 56 62 67 72 76 78 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 48 56 62 67 72 76 78 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 30 37 44 52 58 65 73 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 6 6 8 5 4 11 6 6 10 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 6 5 1 4 5 2 4 4 -3 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 90 66 33 22 30 14 131 172 168 111 101 142 176 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 136 134 130 132 135 137 136 137 138 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 140 139 136 131 134 136 137 135 135 135 136 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 66 65 66 64 64 67 69 61 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 62 56 46 39 38 31 24 39 36 21 14 13 200 MB DIV 7 39 62 57 45 77 72 109 60 29 -39 -39 -41 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -9 -6 -5 -7 0 4 2 -2 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 1138 1259 1378 1508 1639 1904 1703 1462 1245 1079 941 849 765 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.7 10.8 LONG(DEG W) 27.0 28.1 29.3 30.6 31.9 34.5 37.2 39.7 42.1 44.1 45.9 47.4 48.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 15 15 20 19 11 13 26 25 27 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 8. 10. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 28. 36. 42. 47. 52. 56. 58. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST 08/16/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST 08/16/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED