* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112015 08/16/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 29 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 29 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 28 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 6 8 14 24 35 27 25 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 2 4 0 2 -1 1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 123 137 134 145 155 142 145 145 147 148 190 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.2 26.3 25.5 24.5 23.7 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 138 128 120 109 101 95 94 92 93 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -51.3 -51.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 56 54 52 52 48 45 43 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 15 14 13 10 8 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 69 70 61 45 28 10 1 -3 8 13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 46 36 24 19 34 25 11 13 12 9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -1 0 -1 -1 2 0 0 -2 -3 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 767 791 808 832 861 909 1080 1157 1149 1190 1224 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.7 21.7 23.6 25.0 26.3 27.7 28.7 29.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.6 117.9 119.1 120.3 122.8 125.4 127.6 129.3 130.8 132.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 9 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 5 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. -6. -11. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -9. -13. -16. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -12. -22. -32. -40. -42. -46. -48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112015 ELEVEN 08/16/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112015 ELEVEN 08/16/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##