* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112015 08/17/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 27 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 12 16 21 31 25 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 4 1 0 1 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 186 172 162 157 145 146 176 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.3 23.4 23.6 23.6 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 126 120 115 107 97 98 97 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 -49.9 -50.0 -49.9 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 55 52 49 48 48 50 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 9 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 56 55 48 34 17 12 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 21 41 49 48 9 11 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -1 4 3 6 3 3 -8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 911 949 955 994 1057 1224 1282 1325 1353 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 21.1 22.1 23.1 24.0 25.3 26.3 27.2 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.5 120.8 122.1 123.4 124.7 127.3 129.6 131.2 132.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 15 14 13 10 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -1. -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 4. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -10. -13. -13. -12. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -3. -11. -17. -21. -21. -25. -30. -34. -37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112015 ELEVEN 08/17/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112015 ELEVEN 08/17/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##