* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962015 08/17/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 38 46 57 68 76 80 86 90 94 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 38 46 57 68 76 80 86 90 94 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 33 40 49 60 72 84 94 100 103 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 4 5 0 4 13 15 15 9 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 1 7 4 -4 -5 -5 -2 1 4 SHEAR DIR 29 28 24 34 42 214 40 75 80 105 123 144 134 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 140 142 141 144 143 143 145 148 148 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 145 144 144 144 146 144 142 144 148 149 150 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 66 66 71 69 71 65 62 59 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 37 28 19 21 12 21 27 32 29 41 57 55 59 200 MB DIV 66 76 75 77 89 134 81 47 -7 -25 -18 -17 -30 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -7 -7 -7 -6 -6 -5 -4 -2 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1602 1732 1865 1866 1743 1512 1289 1099 948 825 693 576 443 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.3 9.2 8.9 LONG(DEG W) 31.3 32.6 33.9 35.1 36.4 38.7 41.0 43.0 44.7 46.2 47.9 49.5 51.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 8 8 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 21 25 23 14 12 24 33 31 34 32 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 11. 11. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 21. 32. 43. 51. 55. 61. 65. 69. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST 08/17/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST 08/17/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED