* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962015 08/17/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 48 58 70 80 86 91 92 93 95 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 48 58 70 80 86 91 92 93 95 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 45 55 70 84 94 98 98 94 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 7 8 6 2 8 11 12 13 13 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 -3 -6 -5 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 27 30 22 27 43 79 63 92 108 122 129 142 131 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 139 139 139 141 140 137 134 132 128 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 142 140 140 139 140 138 134 130 127 121 119 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 64 67 67 65 62 55 47 40 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 8 10 12 12 14 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 33 18 14 9 5 12 23 41 45 57 50 64 54 200 MB DIV 87 93 90 79 112 114 75 46 5 -9 -25 -24 2 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -9 -11 -11 -6 -6 -6 -3 -2 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 1689 1799 1910 1857 1760 1571 1394 1257 1165 1100 1045 1014 1001 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 16 21 22 21 15 12 15 19 19 21 24 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 18. 28. 40. 50. 56. 61. 62. 63. 65. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST 08/17/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST 08/17/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)