* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962015 08/18/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 47 59 70 77 80 82 82 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 47 59 70 77 80 82 82 82 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 47 59 73 82 85 83 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 0 3 3 1 4 6 3 9 9 10 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 5 6 3 0 0 -1 -4 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 273 292 325 348 310 42 80 46 126 161 183 211 204 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 138 138 138 137 134 129 126 127 126 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 140 138 137 135 134 129 123 120 121 120 119 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 64 66 64 63 55 50 41 40 36 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 9 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 19 17 8 -5 -5 3 22 27 42 39 45 44 41 200 MB DIV 101 104 82 85 95 64 51 6 -14 -29 -39 -20 -19 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -10 -14 -13 -7 -3 -4 -2 0 0 1 -4 LAND (KM) 1837 1927 1828 1740 1655 1504 1365 1290 1264 1220 1147 1096 1068 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 19 18 17 11 11 11 11 18 29 17 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 22. 34. 45. 52. 55. 57. 58. 57. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST 08/18/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST 08/18/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)