* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932015 08/18/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 30 35 40 49 55 60 62 65 66 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 30 35 40 49 55 60 62 65 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 26 28 31 35 40 46 53 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 13 13 9 10 6 14 18 12 11 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 7 4 5 2 3 0 -1 -1 -2 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 43 30 40 39 28 6 21 87 89 69 77 94 87 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.5 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 159 159 158 158 159 159 159 156 150 146 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.7 -52.5 -51.7 -52.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 67 69 72 73 72 70 68 64 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 35 33 33 42 48 49 59 75 78 58 47 23 200 MB DIV 159 143 114 96 78 52 95 109 117 72 61 47 52 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 3 4 2 0 -3 -2 -4 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 1830 1779 1729 1675 1621 1520 1383 1213 1018 824 639 546 511 LAT (DEG N) 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.6 9.2 9.9 10.7 11.5 12.2 13.2 14.2 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 143.2 143.6 144.0 144.4 144.8 145.5 146.6 148.1 150.0 152.3 154.8 157.1 158.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 9 11 12 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 42 38 35 32 27 19 15 24 36 30 18 30 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 20. 29. 35. 40. 42. 45. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932015 INVEST 08/18/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932015 INVEST 08/18/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##