* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962015 08/18/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 52 63 73 78 82 83 84 85 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 52 63 73 78 82 83 84 85 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 41 52 65 77 84 86 86 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 3 1 1 6 4 9 9 8 7 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 5 5 4 2 0 -2 -3 -2 0 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 324 328 343 2 63 71 68 84 129 156 183 190 201 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 138 137 137 137 135 133 130 127 126 128 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 136 135 134 133 129 126 123 121 122 123 124 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 60 64 67 66 65 61 54 50 45 43 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 10 11 12 12 11 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 15 9 -5 -5 -3 7 27 28 28 31 46 41 46 200 MB DIV 105 80 82 94 92 56 42 -14 -28 -34 -42 -4 -10 700-850 TADV -7 -11 -13 -13 -8 -3 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1917 1868 1787 1713 1641 1501 1428 1368 1331 1270 1183 1095 1007 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 6 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 19 18 17 10 10 10 9 11 25 20 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 27. 38. 48. 53. 57. 58. 59. 60. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST 08/18/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST 08/18/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)