* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932015 08/18/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 53 64 72 78 81 85 86 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 53 64 72 78 81 85 86 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 30 38 48 59 69 77 84 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 6 7 12 16 19 19 21 23 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 -1 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 -2 -5 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 108 95 78 69 78 67 67 58 65 52 53 48 70 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 158 158 158 158 158 159 159 160 158 155 152 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.9 -52.3 -53.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 68 66 67 68 70 71 71 70 72 71 67 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 10 12 14 15 16 16 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 56 51 44 49 58 64 74 89 101 116 111 74 45 200 MB DIV 139 113 90 78 60 65 106 102 108 71 49 34 35 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -8 -7 -4 -2 2 LAND (KM) 1418 1381 1344 1305 1266 1208 1156 1132 1100 1056 989 942 911 LAT (DEG N) 7.7 7.9 8.0 8.3 8.5 8.9 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.4 10.3 11.5 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 149.3 149.8 150.2 150.5 150.8 151.2 151.7 152.7 154.1 156.0 158.0 159.9 161.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 6 8 10 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 29 33 35 33 29 24 23 25 36 28 30 29 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 33. 44. 52. 58. 61. 65. 66. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932015 INVEST 08/18/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932015 INVEST 08/18/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##