* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932015 08/18/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 41 52 61 70 76 79 83 86 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 41 52 61 70 76 79 83 86 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 29 36 43 51 61 70 79 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 6 9 18 19 20 15 19 18 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 0 -2 -4 -5 -4 -1 -1 -5 -7 -8 -5 SHEAR DIR 104 72 68 81 78 67 57 70 64 52 46 52 69 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 158 158 158 159 159 159 159 157 155 151 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 67 66 68 69 70 72 71 70 73 73 68 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 51 50 51 59 63 71 89 89 94 103 102 70 45 200 MB DIV 124 93 75 62 55 76 100 92 88 33 10 47 24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -2 -6 -6 -5 0 3 LAND (KM) 1398 1351 1304 1263 1222 1156 1114 1084 1055 1029 1008 1017 1039 LAT (DEG N) 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.6 8.8 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.8 10.6 11.7 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 149.5 150.0 150.4 150.8 151.1 151.7 152.6 153.8 155.4 157.4 159.4 161.5 163.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 7 9 10 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 31 29 26 22 21 24 34 32 29 29 30 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 32. 41. 50. 56. 59. 63. 66. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932015 INVEST 08/18/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932015 INVEST 08/18/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##