* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042015 08/18/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 53 58 68 75 80 84 85 85 83 84 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 53 58 68 75 80 84 85 85 83 84 V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 45 51 57 70 82 89 92 92 91 89 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 5 5 4 8 5 6 7 8 9 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 3 1 0 0 -2 -5 -5 -4 -5 -7 0 SHEAR DIR 338 31 48 40 66 106 121 170 162 188 187 220 123 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 137 138 136 134 129 126 126 128 130 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 135 134 133 130 128 123 120 121 124 127 128 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 63 65 65 64 66 62 53 49 45 43 40 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -12 -8 -5 0 7 7 27 25 42 36 42 34 200 MB DIV 75 92 91 70 52 39 -15 -13 -24 -20 16 -6 -8 700-850 TADV -14 -13 -10 -9 -5 -2 0 0 0 2 3 0 2 LAND (KM) 1728 1655 1585 1519 1456 1381 1352 1313 1247 1153 1052 961 882 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.8 12.4 13.0 13.4 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 37.0 37.8 38.7 39.5 40.3 41.4 42.3 43.5 45.0 46.8 48.9 51.2 53.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 12 8 7 7 7 5 12 25 15 17 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 23. 33. 40. 45. 49. 50. 50. 48. 49. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 FOUR 08/18/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 4.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 FOUR 08/18/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 FOUR 08/18/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)