* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932015 08/18/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 51 63 71 77 80 85 83 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 51 63 71 77 80 85 83 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 36 45 54 64 72 79 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 12 15 17 17 18 12 15 18 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 0 -2 -4 -4 -1 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 86 81 75 67 64 68 71 81 58 54 57 79 90 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 157 157 158 159 159 159 158 156 154 151 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.9 -52.3 -53.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 9 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 69 72 72 71 73 72 71 67 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 13 15 15 15 15 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 58 58 66 66 82 95 99 119 127 117 82 60 10 200 MB DIV 101 85 66 56 52 57 41 58 44 34 19 16 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 -6 -6 -1 5 1 LAND (KM) 1324 1279 1235 1205 1176 1129 1096 1060 1022 987 1002 1053 1119 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.7 10.3 11.0 11.9 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 150.0 150.3 150.6 150.8 151.0 151.6 152.5 153.9 155.8 157.9 160.1 162.3 164.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 3 6 8 10 11 12 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 24 23 21 21 24 33 29 30 29 27 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 21. 22. 21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 7. 8. 7. 8. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 31. 43. 51. 57. 60. 65. 63. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932015 INVEST 08/18/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932015 INVEST 08/18/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##