* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/19/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 61 66 71 76 80 81 83 84 87 89 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 61 66 71 76 80 81 83 84 87 89 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 56 62 67 76 82 87 90 91 94 98 103 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 7 8 7 8 4 1 1 1 3 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 3 4 2 -2 -5 -1 -4 -3 -1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 72 30 80 93 78 120 149 26 265 37 263 33 108 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 137 137 135 131 128 128 128 128 129 134 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 133 132 129 125 123 124 123 124 125 132 136 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 64 66 68 67 63 58 58 57 54 51 44 42 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 16 16 16 17 16 17 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 19 22 16 6 12 6 16 19 19 24 21 200 MB DIV 110 84 81 87 68 4 -25 -13 -5 27 6 21 -3 700-850 TADV -15 -13 -8 -7 -5 -2 0 0 1 1 -2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1507 1447 1391 1343 1298 1256 1197 1102 1041 996 988 758 547 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.6 14.1 14.7 14.9 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 39.6 40.4 41.2 41.9 42.6 43.7 45.1 46.9 48.7 50.8 52.8 55.4 58.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 8 8 8 11 22 16 14 18 31 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 7. 6. 7. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 36. 38. 39. 42. 44. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/19/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/19/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/19/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)