* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932015 08/19/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 31 37 44 53 60 66 70 74 75 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 28 31 37 44 53 60 66 70 74 75 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 28 32 36 41 47 54 60 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 16 20 20 24 19 15 16 14 8 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -5 -4 0 3 -1 1 1 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 63 53 63 75 73 74 86 61 67 47 70 24 15 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 157 157 159 160 160 159 156 150 145 143 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 68 71 72 74 75 73 75 71 67 64 62 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 57 54 55 62 76 83 98 89 84 60 42 39 200 MB DIV 92 69 68 81 82 65 81 54 64 41 43 41 55 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -4 -3 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 1417 1383 1349 1322 1294 1236 1145 1012 861 748 676 649 621 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.3 11.2 12.3 13.7 14.6 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 148.0 148.1 148.2 148.4 148.5 149.3 150.6 152.5 154.7 157.0 158.9 159.8 160.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 2 3 5 8 11 12 12 9 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 18 18 19 22 23 28 31 38 40 38 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 19. 20. 21. 20. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -13. -14. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 33. 40. 46. 50. 54. 55. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932015 INVEST 08/19/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932015 INVEST 08/19/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##