* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/19/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 51 54 58 62 69 70 74 74 73 73 75 V (KT) LAND 45 47 51 54 58 62 69 70 74 74 73 73 75 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 52 56 65 73 79 82 84 83 84 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 7 5 7 7 3 2 4 6 6 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 4 4 0 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 18 63 72 88 76 139 357 204 274 228 270 203 237 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 138 136 133 131 129 127 126 129 134 139 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 135 132 128 126 125 122 121 124 130 135 138 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 65 59 57 51 50 47 43 40 37 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 16 17 16 18 15 17 16 15 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 15 20 23 16 8 12 23 21 22 26 25 20 18 200 MB DIV 85 83 83 49 11 0 -9 -4 3 22 22 9 -8 700-850 TADV -14 -10 -9 -6 -5 -1 -2 0 3 -1 0 -6 0 LAND (KM) 1394 1332 1275 1236 1201 1141 1086 1048 1024 988 809 663 610 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.5 13.3 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 40.7 41.6 42.5 43.3 44.0 45.4 47.3 49.2 50.9 52.9 55.2 57.8 60.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 8 10 9 10 10 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 12 12 12 12 18 13 11 14 25 35 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 18. 24. 25. 29. 29. 28. 28. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/19/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/19/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/19/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)