* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932015 08/19/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 31 42 51 60 66 66 67 65 63 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 28 31 42 51 60 66 66 67 65 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 30 35 41 46 50 52 53 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 19 16 19 19 9 8 6 6 6 10 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -3 -5 0 -4 -2 0 -2 2 6 8 SHEAR DIR 56 54 67 70 57 61 50 47 27 28 313 302 280 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 157 158 159 159 157 152 144 142 140 138 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 72 74 73 73 74 72 70 68 64 66 67 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 15 15 15 15 12 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 58 55 54 71 77 78 80 69 48 22 3 -2 22 200 MB DIV 87 83 87 93 76 88 51 45 24 36 53 86 54 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 3 6 11 7 LAND (KM) 1396 1357 1318 1267 1216 1097 943 732 541 348 202 78 137 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.2 9.6 10.0 10.3 10.9 11.6 12.8 14.1 15.8 17.2 18.2 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 147.9 148.0 148.0 148.3 148.6 149.6 151.1 153.0 154.7 156.1 156.3 155.5 153.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 7 9 11 10 8 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 17 20 27 32 32 28 33 32 28 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 6. 6. 6. 6. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 22. 31. 40. 46. 46. 47. 45. 43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932015 INVEST 08/19/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932015 INVEST 08/19/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##