* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932015 08/19/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 29 37 43 50 54 57 59 61 62 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 29 37 43 50 54 57 59 61 62 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 32 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 15 15 17 11 13 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -4 -1 -6 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 50 62 43 41 59 18 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 157 158 156 156 154 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 80 80 80 79 76 73 71 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 11 13 14 14 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 32 36 40 56 41 47 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 109 113 118 91 77 75 47 65 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 -5 -6 -3 -4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1582 1570 1558 1493 1429 1164 919 669 435 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 7 9 12 13 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 17 17 16 17 31 40 33 31 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 9. 17. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. 42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932015 INVEST 08/19/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932015 INVEST 08/19/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##