* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/20/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 57 61 64 66 67 67 65 65 62 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 57 61 64 66 67 67 65 65 62 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 49 52 56 65 73 75 75 74 73 72 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 3 3 7 4 7 9 12 16 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 -1 -2 -4 -6 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 71 44 31 68 114 295 215 229 216 237 230 239 230 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 131 129 128 127 126 126 129 135 141 143 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 127 124 122 122 121 121 125 131 137 139 139 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 63 58 54 54 53 51 47 44 40 39 34 37 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 11 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 15 4 2 3 10 7 12 8 14 14 9 10 13 200 MB DIV 63 54 0 -23 -27 -20 -21 3 11 4 -3 -12 -2 700-850 TADV -13 -9 -7 -4 -2 0 1 4 -5 0 -3 1 -2 LAND (KM) 1314 1271 1235 1207 1179 1126 1111 1084 1005 821 691 545 296 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.6 14.3 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 42.3 43.1 44.0 44.8 45.5 47.1 48.7 50.7 53.0 55.5 58.2 60.8 63.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 11 12 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 10 11 20 15 11 14 25 35 35 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 12. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 20. 20. 17. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/20/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/20/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/20/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)