* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932015 08/20/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 30 38 44 51 56 58 59 60 60 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 30 38 44 51 56 58 59 60 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 34 37 40 44 47 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 21 21 18 11 16 11 8 3 2 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -4 -3 -6 -6 -5 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 87 88 65 43 48 40 38 54 67 125 196 243 289 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 159 160 159 158 152 146 144 142 141 141 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 71 71 69 66 64 57 57 56 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 14 14 14 13 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 64 74 85 92 90 74 64 31 9 5 20 17 200 MB DIV 114 120 94 66 54 67 52 36 43 25 36 -8 -2 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 -5 -4 -6 -5 2 4 1 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 1347 1289 1231 1156 1082 912 720 571 510 483 472 414 386 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.6 12.6 13.8 15.1 16.3 17.2 17.6 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 147.0 147.5 148.1 148.9 149.7 151.7 154.0 156.3 158.3 159.4 159.9 159.5 159.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 12 10 7 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 19 25 28 31 28 31 39 39 36 34 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 12. 10. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 18. 24. 31. 36. 38. 39. 40. 40. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932015 INVEST 08/20/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932015 INVEST 08/20/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##