* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942015 08/20/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 37 42 45 48 50 51 52 52 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 37 42 45 48 50 51 52 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 26 30 34 36 39 41 44 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 2 3 4 3 10 10 8 7 6 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 149 149 111 50 56 348 341 350 350 340 333 295 18 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 152 150 150 151 152 153 153 153 154 156 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 63 63 64 60 58 58 57 57 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 80 70 58 54 51 48 38 31 23 24 26 4 200 MB DIV 46 38 23 28 26 7 7 2 1 1 13 11 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 2235 2230 2224 2202 2181 2177 2227 4204 4087 3978 3869 3751 3614 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.7 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 179.0 179.0 179.1 179.0 179.0 179.1 179.7 180.8 182.3 183.9 185.5 187.1 189.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 2 2 4 6 7 8 8 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 76 77 78 78 78 78 76 75 75 73 72 74 81 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942015 INVEST 08/20/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942015 INVEST 08/20/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##