* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/20/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 54 56 62 64 65 64 62 62 60 59 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 54 56 62 64 65 64 62 62 60 59 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 53 57 66 74 76 75 72 70 70 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 3 1 1 2 6 8 12 10 13 10 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 9 347 5 69 301 128 243 240 246 216 227 239 228 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 129 128 128 127 125 127 131 136 140 142 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 126 124 124 123 122 120 123 126 130 135 139 142 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 12 12 700-500 MB RH 58 54 55 55 55 54 49 44 41 40 40 38 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 14 13 14 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 9 2 0 9 8 0 8 0 9 3 5 0 4 200 MB DIV 48 -6 -24 -26 -13 -2 0 21 -10 -9 -29 -30 -31 700-850 TADV -8 -5 -3 -1 -1 0 4 2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1259 1229 1204 1173 1141 1105 1089 1071 896 730 627 531 232 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.8 14.5 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.4 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 43.2 43.9 44.6 45.4 46.3 47.8 49.6 51.8 54.2 56.5 58.5 61.1 63.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 10 11 15 18 11 12 20 29 43 9 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 17. 19. 20. 19. 17. 17. 15. 14. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/20/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/20/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/20/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED